Myanmar's Summer Power Crisis

In Myanmar, power outages during summer or frequent electricity interruptions have become a regular phenomenon, and it has become traditional for Myanmar governments to struggle with providing full electricity supply during the summer season.

However, there are people who don't have to worry about power cuts. They are the 80 percent of rural residents. Why don't they need to worry about power cuts? The reason is that they don't receive electricity from the National Grid yet. For those without electricity, there's no need to worry about power cuts. This doesn't mean the situation is acceptable.

So, why are there more power cuts during summer? What's going wrong? What is needed for full electricity supply?

Current Problems

Myanmar's minimum electricity demand is 6,000 megawatts, while the current maximum electricity generation is only around 2,500 megawatts. During the civilian government's administration, electricity generation was at a maximum of around 4,200 megawatts and a minimum of about 3,600 megawatts.

After the 2021 political transition, Myanmar's electricity demand increased, and the current government has implemented a rotating power supply system. Previously, in Yangon, they used a system of 4 hours on, 4 hours off rotation.

Now, since November 2024, the situation has worsened with a system of 4 hours on, 8 hours off.

This is just the official announcement; in reality, power outages last even longer.

Current Situation

Myanmar uses four main sources for electricity generation. These are hydropower, natural gas, coal, and solar energy.

According to 2020 statistics, Myanmar distributed 3,828 megawatts of electricity. Of this, hydropower accounts for 52 percent, natural gas for 45 percent, and solar energy and coal for 3 percent.

80 percent of rural residents don't receive electricity from the National Grid yet. Currently, only about half of the country's population is connected to the National Grid. There is a goal to achieve nationwide electricity coverage by 2030. Despite this goal, there are still problems.

Resource Problems

Hydropower

According to data, Myanmar heavily relies on hydropower for electricity generation. Myanmar has four major rivers, and the Asian Development Bank has indicated that these rivers could generate more than 100,000 megawatts of hydroelectric power. Furthermore, Myanmar currently produces 3,262 megawatts from 27 hydropower plants. However, in reality, electricity generation dropped from 3,711 megawatts in October 2021 to 2,665 megawatts in March 2022. In 2024, it can only produce around 2,000 megawatts.

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As everyone knows, hydropower requires water to generate electricity. While hydropower can be directly generated from rivers, streams, and lakes during the rainy season, in summer, electricity must be generated through respective dams and reservoirs. However, due to low rainfall during the monsoon season, the relevant dams and reservoirs cannot store enough water. This makes it difficult to provide electricity during summer.

Natural Gas

In Myanmar, natural gas-powered electricity is also an important sector like hydropower. Myanmar not only uses domestic natural gas but also purchases foreign natural gas to generate electricity. When buying LNG from abroad, the rising prices make it difficult to purchase and generate electricity.

Solar Energy

Another resource is solar energy. Currently in Myanmar, electricity generation from solar energy only exists in Minbu, which can only produce 170 megawatts and supply electricity to 210,000 households. In 2020, during the civilian government, 28 out of 29 solar power projects planned for the next 20 years had won tenders, but in 2022, these Chinese companies that won the tenders suspended their projects due to political instability, financial instability, and security concerns. This also affects the current power outage rates.

Coal

Although Myanmar exports coal abroad, the country's energy sector produces very little from coal. From an environmental impact perspective, electricity generation from coal still has many limitations.

Therefore, from a resource perspective, Myanmar still relies mainly on hydropower. Due to this reliance on water, power cuts occur when water levels are low in summer. This is why experts suggest not relying solely on hydropower but mixing resources and producing electricity with appropriate amounts from different sources.

Project Problems

Another issue is project-related problems.

After the 2021 coup, many projects implemented or being implemented during the civilian government's time have stopped. Most projects were suspended by the business partners themselves.

Now, the civilian government's National Electricity Strategy Plan and 28 solar projects have stopped. The hydropower project on the Salween River and the natural gas project at Thilawa Special Economic Zone will also not materialize.

These are also major reasons for the current power outages. Projects need to be restarted. To restart projects, private business confidence needs to be restored. To gain confidence, the country needs stability. Only then can we hope for the dream of electricity access.

Budget Problems

Myanmar's electricity energy needs will reach at least 9,100 megawatts by 2030, and if production remains at the current level, it's concerning to think that Myanmar might only have electricity for the blink of an eye not just in summer but throughout the year.

However, the current government attributes the power outages to the arrival of summer, rising LNG prices, and damage to power lines.

In reality, electricity shortages aren't just due to these reasons. It's also because of insufficient budget allocation.

While they talk about increasing electricity production costs for Myanmar's increased power generation, implementing small-scale hydropower projects by region, coal power projects, and nuclear energy power generation, the reality is different.

In 2023, the budget used for electrical energy was only 3.42 percent. This is significantly lower compared to the defense budget of 28.23 percent. In numbers, while the defense budget exceeds 5,600 billion kyats, the electricity energy department's budget is only 680 billion kyats.

To put it clearly, while spending 900 kyats on defense, only 100 kyats is spent on electricity. Power cuts also occur because of this inability to allocate sufficient budget.

Three Problems, Three Solutions

Looking closely at the main causes of summer power cuts or insufficient electricity supply, we find:

Over-reliance on hydropower
Suspension of electricity projects
Low budget allocation for electricity

There are three solutions to address these three points:

Experts have suggested reducing reliance on hydropower alone and producing proportionally from all resources. This needs to be implemented.
While it may not be easy to immediately replace suspended projects with new ones, efforts should be made. However, replacement projects need to be transparent and accountable.
Since budget allocation for electricity is very low, it needs to be increased. With electricity meter charges already increased nearly threefold from the public, if more budget can be allocated for electricity, summer power outages could be partially solved.

In reality, electricity generation isn't something that can be done overnight but needs to be implemented systematically with proper planning. As it's a national-level issue, it requires expansion with experts and comprehensive, forward-thinking implementation from all aspects. This problem can only be solved through collaboration with love for the country. This also requires political stability.

Otherwise, for Myanmar's people, the days of power cuts will only multiply exponentially like the "zero" in mathematics.

By Kyaw Zay Wann (Y3A)

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